![]() To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of r max values. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate r max: von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r max) for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler–Lotka demographic model. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. Diagnosing the dangerous demography of manta rays using life history theory. ![]() Cite this article Dulvy NK, Pardo SA, Simpfendorfer CA, Carlson JK. This work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. Licence This is an open access article, free of all copyright, made available under the Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. 3 NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Panama City, FL, USA DOI 10.7717/peerj.400 Published Accepted Received Academic Editor John Bruno Subject Areas Aquaculture, Fisheries and Fish Science, Conservation Biology, Ecology, Marine Biology, Science Policy Keywords CITES, Data-poor fisheries, Life history invariant, Wildlife trade, Euler–Lotka, Population growth rate, Accounting for uncertainty, Von Bertalanffy growth function, Ocean ivory, Chinese medicine Copyright © 2014 Dulvy et al.
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